\begin{table}[h!]
\begin{center}
\begin{threeparttable}
\begin{scriptsize}
\caption{Sensitivity analysis}\label{TableC3}
\begin{tabular*}{\columnwidth}{@{\extracolsep{\stretch{1}}}l*{8}{c}@{}}
\hline
\hline
       &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(1)}                &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(2)}                &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(3)}                &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(4)} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(5)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(6)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(7)}&\multicolumn{1}{c}{(8)} \\
\multicolumn{1}{l}{\textit{Dep. Variable}} &\multicolumn{8}{c}{Democratic vote (\%)} \\
\cmidrule(lr){2-9}   
\multicolumn{1}{l}{\textit{Parallel trends test}}      &\multicolumn{2}{c}{Slope}      &\multicolumn{3}{c}{Placebo}    &\multicolumn{3}{c}{Balancing (entropy weights)}\\
\cmidrule(lr){2-3} \cmidrule(lr){4-6} \cmidrule(lr){7-9}
       &\multicolumn{1}{c}{No slope}   &\multicolumn{1}{c}{Linear}             &\multicolumn{1}{c}{Baseline}   &\multicolumn{1}{c}{Placebo}    &\multicolumn{1}{c}{Extended}   &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1892}       &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1892}               &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1892}\\
       &\multicolumn{1}{c}{}                   &\multicolumn{1}{c}{slope}              &\multicolumn{2}{c}{} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{pre-treat} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{no elec.}      &\multicolumn{1}{c}{elections}  &\multicolumn{1}{c}{full}\\
\cmidrule(lr){2-3} \cmidrule(lr){4-6} \cmidrule(lr){7-9}
\multicolumn{1}{l}{\textit{Sample years}} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1884-1900} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1884-1900} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1884-1900} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1884-1892} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1880-1900} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1884-1900} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1884-1900} &\multicolumn{1}{c}{1884-1900} \\
\hline
\\
Speech $ \times $ 1880&               &               &               &               &     --0.580   &               &               &               \\
                    &               &               &               &               &     (0.497)   &               &               &               \\
[0.5em] Speech $ \times $ 1884&               &               &     --0.016   &     --0.155   &       0.104   &     --0.494   &     --0.177   &     --0.278   \\
                    &               &               &     (0.414)   &     (0.423)   &     (0.417)   &     (0.455)   &     (0.407)   &     (0.453)   \\
[0.5em] Speech $ \times $ 1888&               &               &     --0.250   &     --0.312   &     --0.217   &     --0.222   &     --0.433   &       0.032   \\
                    &               &               &     (0.314)   &     (0.309)   &     (0.319)   &     (0.397)   &     (0.296)   &     (0.429)   \\
\\ Speech $ \times $ 1892 (omit.) & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 \\ 



\\ Speech $ \times $ 1896&       1.060***&       1.043** &       0.974***&               &       0.973***&       0.782*  &       0.710** &       0.905** \\
                    &     (0.344)   &     (0.406)   &     (0.318)   &               &     (0.319)   &     (0.432)   &     (0.311)   &     (0.438)   \\
[0.5em] Speech $ \times $ 1900&       0.369   &       0.343   &       0.283   &               &       0.332   &     --1.260*  &       0.087   &     --0.964   \\
                    &     (0.371)   &     (0.594)   &     (0.360)   &               &     (0.363)   &     (0.728)   &     (0.355)   &     (0.644)   \\
[0.5em] Speech $ \times $ Year&               &       0.002   &               &               &               &               &               &               \\
                    &               &     (0.052)   &               &               &               &               &               &               \\
\\ Full controls    &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   \\
Year $ \times $ State FE &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   \\
Year $ \times $ Farmers (\%) &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   \\
Year $ \times $ Workers (\%) &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   \\
County FE           &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   &         Yes   \\
\hline
Mean dep. variable  &       47.71   &       47.71   &       47.71   &       49.00   &       47.51   &       47.51   &       47.51   &       47.51   \\
Observations        &       6,829   &       6,829   &       6,829   &       4,012   &       8,161   &       6,651   &       6,651   &       6,651   \\
Clusters            &       1,410   &       1,410   &       1,410   &       1,338   &       1,410   &       1,374   &       1,374   &       1,374   \\
Adjusted $ R^2 $    &        0.89   &        0.89   &        0.89   &        0.91   &        0.87   &        0.88   &        0.88   &        0.87   \\


\hline
Pre-trends joint test \\
\multicolumn{1}{l}{Pre-trends $ F $-stat}&               &        0.00   &        0.59   &        0.61   &        1.20   &        0.64   &        1.40   &        0.46   \\
\multicolumn{1}{l}{Pre-trends $ p $-value}&               &        0.97   &        0.55   &        0.54   &        0.31   &        0.53   &        0.25   &        0.63   \\
\hline
\hline
\end{tabular*}
\end{scriptsize}
\begin{tablenotes}[normal,flushleft]
\begin{scriptsize}
\item \emph{Notes}: OLS regressions. The unit of observation is a county $ \times $ election. 
Time-varying controls: Year $ \times $ Farmers (\%), Year $ \times $ Manufacture workers (\%). 
All regressions include the full set of controls presented in Table \ref{Table1}, except time invariant geographical characteristics. 
All regressions include Year $ \times $ State fixed-effects and county fixed-effects. 
Standard errors clustered at the county level in parentheses.
* significant at 10\%; ** at 5\%; *** at 1\%. 
\textit{Pre-trends joint significance} is a F-test that the 1884 and 1888 are jointly different from the 1892 coefficient. 
\end{scriptsize}
\end{tablenotes}
\end{threeparttable} 
\end{center}
\end{table}
